LA’s Drastic Transformation Towards 2028

This is a follow up article on a January 2017 article, heralding LA’s upcoming transformation. Since publishing the first article in 2017, the system has evolved significantly and the phenomenon has grown.

The number and density of positive feedback loops have increase so much that the transformation could reach an unprecedented scale. Hence I have decided to do a detailed, systemic analysis of LA’s upcoming transformation (in a chain format). LA’s transformation will be an interplay between tech innovation, transportation revolution, public infrastructure, real estate development and sports entertainment.

Below is a 50-piece series that was published on LinkedIn starting February 2018.

1. Since LA’s transformation is a systemic phenomenon and systems are difficult to describe with linear text, I have decided to do a daily tweet series on LinkedIn to address every large phenomenon and the interactions with other phenomena of the system. Since all of them together will ultimately lead to LA’s Transformation!

2. On a macro level one of the next sectors to get disrupted is transportation (i.e. autonomous, other modes, …). This means communities that have large transportation pain-points will feel a larger impact and see more improvement. LA is spread out, traffic stricken and has large transportation pain-points, hence the transportation revolution will, in relative terms, show more improvement on LA’s desirability.

3. Another macro phenomenon, the electrification of cars will have a significant effect on localized air pollution. Most likely in 10 years most of LA’s car fleet will be electric. Since LA has one of the biggest car fleets in the US and also suffers from lots of smog, this change will significantly improve LA’s air quality. Eliminating this negative dimension will increase LA’s desirability relative to other cities and cause an increased population flow to LA.

4. So both macro phenomena electrification of cars and autonomous transport (and additional modes) will address two significant negative dimensions of LA (air quality and transportation pain-points), increase LA’s relative desirability compared to other cities and create an increased population flow. The next significant macro phenomenon to be discussed is Elon Musk!

5. Elon Musk is both a macro and micro phenomenon. He is arguably the most inspirational entrepreneur of our time. Millennials and entrepreneurs all around the world look to him. Therefore his presence in LA puts increasing global limelight on LA. In addition, on a micro level he is shaping LA with SpaceX, Tesla Design Studio and The Boring Company. All to be discussed next!

6. Since Musk is the most inspirational entrepreneur of our time, over time he will attract aspiring entrepreneurs and talented people from all over the world, who will flock to LA and hence add to LA’s talent pool and entrepreneurial spirit. This will also cumulate with the previously discussed population flow phenomena. Also Musk is a crucial link between LA and Silicon Valley and facilitates the Valley’s spread to LA. One example of this is Peter Thiel’s recent move to Los Angeles. To be discussed next.

7. Media calls Peter Thiel’s move from SF to LA an escape but it is also possible that Thiel realizes that LA will be the next Silicon Valley. An LA presence of Thiel, who helped shape Silicon Valley, is an additional dimension to contribute to LA’s upcoming transformation. Thiel’s impact can be discussed later in more detail so let’s return to Elon Musk’s micro effects on LA.

8. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is an interesting phenomenon. It is innovating at a pace unprecedented for the space industry. Over time it will not only increase the size of the space transport market but also become a monopoly-like player. SpaceX will maintain technology differentiation and pricing power, since space tech is much harder to replicate than other types of tech. As Hawthorne is fairly undeveloped, SpaceX will easily expand there and over time Hawthorne will become Space City USA (by also attracting some subcontractors and clients).

9. In addition Tesla’s Design Studio is in Hawthorne. Not only is this an additional source of expansion but also most Tesla product launches happen there. As Tesla continues to innovate in the car industry and launch new products, the world will be looking at Hawthorne. Hence this will continuously put global limelight on LA’s tech scene. Which will attract more people, all to be discussed next.

10. A recent ranking showed that SpaceX and Tesla are 1st and 2nd most desirable companies for millennials to work. Although Tesla is mostly in the Bay Area, it has a large presence in LA as well (with the Hawthorne Design Studio and the Marina Del Rey Delivery Facility). This recruiting desirability for SpaceX and Tesla is an additional dimension of top talent/population flow to LA. Also SpaceX holds an annual Hyperloop competition, which brings innovative teams from all over the world to Hawthorne and exposes them to LA’s tech scene. Then there is The Boring Company, which will be briefly discussed next.

11. The Boring Company is still in its infancy and its potential is difficult to assess. Yet it could have a two-fold effect on LA. First a direct one by creating a transportation tunnel network under LA (which will be discussed next). Second it will add to the list of highly innovative companies in LA, thereby creating additional talent flow. For now The Boring Company is also headquartered in Hawthorne.

12. The impact and the timeline of the Boring Company’s LA Tunnels is difficult to assess. But if through them the 405, the clogged LA artery, can be unclogged, LA’s Westside axis will be fluidly connected. This would be transformative (including for the nascent tech scene along this axis). Broadly if an entire tunnel network can be created it will alleviate one of the biggest negative dimensions of LA and make LA a lot more desirable. Although this development is in an early stage, I have faith in Elon Musk (also because he wants to improve his commute from Bel Air to Hawthorne).

13. So now we fast forward Hawthorne by 4–5 years. By then SpaceX, Tesla Design Studio, The Boring Company will all have more resources, top talent, capacity and will have transformed Hawthorne. Also if by then SpaceX has a liquidity event, it will create a batch of entrepreneurially-minded millionaires, who will initiate the next flock of transformative companies in hard tech but also soft tech in LA. This concludes the analysis of Elon Musk’s dimension of LA’s transformation. So now we can move just north from Hawthorne to Inglewood, another neighborhood that will experience a transformation in that time period.

14. Inglewood’s transformation is mainly centered on infrastructure and sports entertainment, but there are some other factors at play as well. At the core we have the construction of the new NFL stadium (the most expensive stadium in the world) and the new Clippers arena (not finalized yet). These infrastructure projects will physically alter the neighborhood. Also the Rams, Chargers and Clippers moving to Inglewood will breath life into the community. In addition Inglewood is set for some public infrastructure projects to be discussed next.

15. Inglewood will have three stops of the new Crenshaw-LAX rail line, which will connect Inglewood to mid-city and LAX. Sensing the times the local government is undertaking several neighborhood improvement project, including attempting to create an innovation and arts district. Due to its proximity to Hawthorne the entrepreneurial spirit could spread to Inglewood and this district. Inglewood’s and Hawthorne’s transformations could interact with each other and amplify each other. Inglewood also has broader improvement agendas, which should have significant, external, economic support. To be discussed next.

16. Steve Ballmer, Stan Kroenke and Alex Spanos (all multi-billionaires) becoming stakeholders in Inglewood is significant, because they will have a continuous incentive to help make Inglewood more attractive, inviting and pleasant. Since a continuous improvement of Inglewood will positively correlate with economic successes of the new venues (NFL Stadium and NBA Arena) and franchises (Rams, Chargers and Clippers). Ballmer’s, Kroenke’s and Spanos’ combined economic and sociological influence will continuously push forward Inglewood’s transformation for many years beyond the initial venue construction projects. In addition the world will experience Inglewood’s transformation first hand, since Inglewood is slotted for several national and global events over the next 10 years. To be discussed next.

17. In addition to upcoming NFL and NBA games, over the next 10 years Inglewood will host the 2022 Super Bowl, the 2023 College Football Championship, hopefully many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches (not finalized yet) and many 2028 Olympic events. This will put a continuous national and global limelight on Inglewood and LA (contribute to population flow), as well as bring a slew of visitors from all over the world to experience Inglewood’s and LA’s transformation. This concludes the analysis of Inglewood’s transformation. Just west of Inglewood another neighborhood, Westchester, the gateway for all these global visitors, will experience its own transformation. Inglewood’s and Westchester’s transformations will probably interact and amplify each other. Next we will discuss Westchester’s transformation.

18. Westchester’s transformation is centered on LAX’s modernization. A $12 billion construction project, one of the biggest in LA’s history, will transform the airport by improving several terminals, adding another international concourse to the Bradley Terminal and also adding an Automated People Mover. The People Mover will make moving through the airport much easier. For the first time LAX will connect to the public transport rail system through the Crenshaw-LAX line. Furthermore, with the emergence of the Asian economies the west-facing US ports will become over time more important and therefore the additional international concourse will be in high demand. These changes will also alter the airport’s surroundings all to be discussed next.

19. A modernized LAX will handle the increased visitors over the next 10 years. Westchester will have three stops of the Crenshaw-LAX line. This will link the neighborhood to Mid City and revive Westchester. Around the LAX train stop, two new facilities and a consolidate rental car center will also be constructed. This will free up significant commercial space that is currently used as parking for rental car companies. This space could be potentially used for innovative businesses (if zoning and air traffic allow). Westchester’s northern part will feel a real estate revival from the emergence of the Playa Vista’s Tech Center and Snap’s growth, all to be discussed next.

20. Playa Vista’s development along Jefferson Blvd. is interesting to watch. Although it does not involve any strong disruptive phenomena, it still attracts tech and creative workers by the usual players Facebook, Google, etc. It will increase LA’s innovation workforce. The Playa Vista development can also serve as office space for any future tech startups that could spring out of the emergence of Snap and “Silicon Beach”. Snap is probably the most interesting phenomenon in this area, so we will discuss it in detail.

21. Snap, originally from Venice, is the second dominant phenomenon of LA’s transformation (the other being Elon Musk). Therefore we will discuss Snap in more detail. Most likely Wall Street is underestimating/misunderstanding Snap’s true potential and I am happy to take the contrarian view on Snap. Snap is the true innovator in social. Usually the innovator has a product roadmap, which the followers/copiers do not (this is an important point to consider). Although the other players are copying Snap’s features, Evan Spiegel is a highly creative and innovative leader. He still has many years of innovation ahead and will lead Snap’s future emergence. In addition, Snap is LA’s tech jewel and therefore has the full and undivided support of the mayor’s office (unlike the companies in the Bay Area). We will discuss Snap in more detail next.

22. Snap also has a strong potential in the sports entertainment space. Sports entertainment is one of the few contents not yet disrupted by Netflix, Amazon, Facebook and Twitter. Sports entertainment is still somewhat controlled by the traditional studios. Snap’s close collaboration with the traditional studios and presence in LA, as a sports hub (also with all the upcoming sports events), provides Snap a favorite position in this content category. In my opinion Snap still has many years of innovation ahead, both in software and hardware. Snap, as a popular teen phenomenon, is a highly desirable workplace for the next generation and therefore another source of population and talent flow to LA.

23. Since Snap’s founders are Stanford graduates, Snap will become an important link between Silicon Valley and LA (in addition to Musk). As Snap recruits heavily from Stanford it creates another strong sociological bond between LA and the Valley. (In simple terms many Snap employees will have college buddies at Bay Area companies and as entrepreneurs in the valley). This will further assist Silicon Valley’s spread to LA. Snap has a highly creative workforce and therefore will provide a strong batch of entrepreneurially minded, post-IPO innovators to start the next cycle of startups on LA’s Westside. Snap’s full IPO impact has not played out yet because the stock price is below its IPO highs. Once the stock price reaches new highs, the IPO’s impact will be more visible. Hence Snap will continue transforming Venice and will spread to Santa Monica (maybe even Culver City). Snap is starting to consolidate its workforce at the Santa Monica Business Park. This will assist Santa Monica’s transformation, which will be discussed next.

24. Both Brian Chesky (AirBnB’s CEO) and Travis Kalanick (Uber’s Ex-CEO) used to live in LA before moving to SF. Back then LA had a weak startup scene but in the future a transformed Westside could hold on to future innovators. Santa Monica is a natural startup hub in LA and now has a nascent startup scene (with promising companies like Headspace, ZipRecruiter, Bird etc.). This scene will become even stronger and transform Santa Monica once Snap’s IPO’s impact fully plays out. Snap also has a big presence at Santa Monica Business Park. Santa Monica and LA’s Westside are desirable living places. A more mature startup scene could attract and hold more startups. Santa Monica could be a hub for it. In addition Santa Monica now has its first public rail transportation link with the Expo Line. Next we will briefly discuss Westwood and UCLA.

25. Although Westwood will not undergo a strong transformation, it is still worth mentioning the 2026 Purple Line’s extension’s impact on Westwood and UCLA. For the first time Westwood, with its heavy traffic, limited parking and dense population, will have a direct metro connection to Downtown LA. This will connect the “downtown of the Westside” to the actual LA downtown through a 25-minute metro ride. In addition to affecting Westwood, it could also have a positive effect on UCLA, by making the campus more connected and accessible for students. Granted the Westwood station is bit far from UCLA, but there is talk that the Sepulveda Pass connection (completed by 2028) could also have a station on campus. Santa Monica’s transformation, through its nascent tech scene and Snap, will also impact UCLA and contribute to the schools increased desirability. The pair interaction between Silicon Beach and UCLA could become more coupled due to proximity and could amplify both entities. Westwood will be the northern tip of the Westside Transformation Axis.

26. The Westside Transformation Axis (WTA) stretches from Hawthorne, to Inglewood, to Westchester, to Playa Vista, to Venice, to Culver City, to Santa Monica, to Westwood. These neighborhoods will undergo transformations in the next 10 years. These transformations will interact and amplify each other along the axis. There will be two dominant poles of cross-interactions (Hawthorne + Inglewood + Westchester) and (Venice + Santa Monica + Westwood + Culver City). There are several other reinforcing interactions between all these phenomena along the axis. We have only focused on the most dominant links. Furthermore, if at some point in the future Elon Musk can realize The Boring Company’s tunnel along this axis, it will connect more fluidly and amplify the Westside Transformation Axis. This concludes the Westside Transformation Axis. Next we will discuss downtown LA and finish up with some other macro phenomena.

27. Downtown LA will also undergo a transformation mostly centered on transportation and infrastructure. These changes will involve public transportation additions, as well as, developments around the next generation of transportation, Hyperloop and other modes. All these factors will not only affect downtown but also USC and could create pair interactions between them. After the regional connecter and the extensions of Expo Line to Santa Monica, Purple Line to Westwood, and Crenshaw line to LAX are completed, one can take public transport from downtown to almost anywhere in LA. Downtown will become more of a hub and connect into the city. This will also make USC more connected to the city. USC becoming more accessible will increase the school’s desirability. USC’s surrounding will also undergo changes some of them because of Hyperloop One, to be discussed next.

28. The Coliseum’s renovation for the Olympics, the new soccer stadium’s construction for LAFC and the Lucas Museum will create improved entertainment options for downtown residence and newcomers. These will also affect USC.

Virgin Hyperloop One (VH1) is another significant phenomenon occurring not too far from USC. Hyperloop’s concept is in an early stage. It is difficult to accurately assess its economic/commercial viability or future impact timeline. But if it ever becomes commercially viable it would be a game-changer for transportation. We will discuss Hyperloop’s broader impact and local impact on DTLA next.

29. Virgin Hyperloop One (VH1) is the third dominant phenomenon of LA’s transformation (the others being Elon Musk and Snap). We will discuss VH1’s micro effects first and macro effects later. VH1 is an aspirational company to work for and will attract lots of global, top talent to LA. VH1 is a highly desirable workplace for the next generation because it involves futuristic technology, can potentially transform the world and is associated with an inspirational entrepreneur like Richard Branson. In addition, VH1’s investors have deep pockets and can continue funding even if the concept faces early challenges. DP World in the past funded outrageous projects like the Dubai World or the Palm Island. DP World would willingly continue funding VH1 to realize a dream of a 12 min link between Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Richard Branson’s involvement in VH1 also has a big impact. To be discussed next.

30. Richard Branson’s transportation expertise and global brand will be important factors for Virgin Hyperloop One’s (VH1) future. Branson, as chairman of VH1, is likely to get more involved in the company and will spend more time in LA. The potential of VH1 ushering a new transportation age could be an enticing legacy for Branson. Therefore, to see VH1 succeed, he is likely to continue his financial support for VH1 in later rounds. This makes him the second committed and financially strong backer of VH1 (in addition to DP World). All the described factors will create years of top talent and capital flow to VH1 and downtown LA. VH1 is also likely to get continuous global media coverage. VH1 could re-shape downtown LA, to be discussed next.

31. As Virgin Hyperloop One (VH1) accumulates more resources and expands around downtown’s arts district it will reshape its surrounding. VH1 could also start an interesting pair interaction with USC (i.e. interns, guest lecturers, research projects). This pair interaction will amplify both entities. Also VH1 could serve as a cradle for new transportation-tech startups around downtown. An example of it is the startup Arrivo, which came out of an internal strife at VH1. So VH1 will have a broader impact around downtown LA and will affect and amplify many institutions there. In the future downtown LA will host many 2028 Olympic events and 2026 FIFA WC events (not finalized yet). This will bring visitors and media coverage and let the world experience the transformation of downtown LA. If Hyperloop as a technology ever becomes commercially viable (which is still uncertain), it will have a more profound impact. We will briefly discuss this next.

32. Attempting to predict Hyperloop’s commercial feasibility or impact on communities is too difficult right now, so we won’t attempt that. Most likely Hyperloop will be introduced to emerging economies first. If Hyperloop and any other new transportation modes ever become mainstream, many of LA’s public transportation projects discussed earlier will become less significant. Communities will shape around the newly emerging transportation modes. If in the distant future Hyperloop travel between SF and LA becomes feasible, SF and LA will be only 45 minutes apart. This will further facilitate Silicon Valley’s spread to LA and potentially make downtown LA a bigger transit hub. Either way downtown LA will become a transportation-tech innovation center. In addition to the Westside Transformation Axis, DTLA is a central pole of LA’s transformation and will further amplify LA’s transformation.

33. Peter Thiel’s move to Los Angeles is another important component of LA’s transformation. Thiel is an unconventional thinker, investor and entrepreneur. Drastic innovation requires unconventional thinkers. Now with Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, two of the most unconventional thinkers/entrepreneurs of our time live in LA. All networks start with two entities. :) In the future Thiel will attract more unconventional thinkers and entrepreneurs to LA. He will become an additional link between LA and Silicon Valley and thereby facilitate the Valley’s spread to LA. In the future he could fund and advise many interesting and innovative startups in LA. The Thiel Foundation will also relocate to LA and thereby provide additional flow of innovative entrepreneurs, who will start the next batch of innovative companies in LA. All these developments will amplify LA’s transformation.

34. So far we have discussed the most dominant phenomena of LA’s upcoming transformation. Yet the cross-interactions between these phenomena are as important as the phenomena themselves. The cross-interactions can create much stronger positive feedback loops due to their geographic proximity and specific nature of feedback. A well-known example of strong cross-interaction is the interaction between Stanford University and Silicon Valley. That interaction has for years amplified both phenomena. Next we will briefly discuss potential modes of cross-interactions between the transformation phenomena in LA.

35. Can UCLA or USC develop strong cross-interactions with SpaceX, Snap or Hyperloop One? It all depends on the schools’ initiative and creativity. USC, as a private institution, is at a slight advantage. It has more agility and can easier align itself with that objective. Creating close collaborations, including internship programs or industry guest lectures, would be a first step. Silicon Valley executives teach many Stanford lectures/seminars. This creates the first important link and exposes the students to the needs of the real world. UCLA and USC by seeking close collaborations with SpaceX, Snap and Hyperloop One can create self-reinforcing interactions. Next we will discuss each school’s position towards a self-reinforcing cross-interaction.

36. USC is currently in an upswing. USC’s surrounding, which for years was fairly rundown, is going through a revival, including projects like the Lucas Museum. USC is becoming well connected to public transport rail and the downtown’s reemergence also has positive effects. All of that increases USC’s desirability. USC’s proximity to Hyperloop One could lead to close cross-interactions between the two (also interactions with Snap and SpaceX are possible). UCLA is close to Snap and Santa Monica’s tech scene and could develop a cross-interaction with Snap. UCLA’s surrounding has traffic and parking problems and is also missing a broader public transport link. All these frictions could hamper strong cross-interactions. UCLA could still develop some cross-interactions with SpaceX and Hyperloop1. If in the future a new urban transport mode emerges, it would help alleviate these traffic/distance frictions and probably strengthen cross-interactions.

37. Just to elaborate what I mean by a self-reinforcing cross-interaction between a university and a company: When a university and a highly desirable company develop a close collaboration, over time it slightly increases the school’s desirability and offers a slightly better admission pool. The company then receives a slightly better pre-screened recruiting batch. This saves resources for the company, amplifies the company’s success and increases its desirability. It also creates a strong alumni network within the company, which strengthens the cross-interaction with the university. This increases the school’s desirability even more and provides an even better admission pool. It then provides an even better pre-screened recruiting batch to the company. So the cycle continues to self-reinforce itself with each step and over time amplifies both the university and the company. We will have to wait and see if either UCLA or USC can take advantage of this as SpaceX, Snap and Hyperloop One are highly desirable companies.

38. The Hawthorne-Inglewood cross-interaction is one of the strongest cross-interactions. These two adjacent neighborhoods each have a population of about 100K and are yet underdeveloped. Both are simultaneously experiencing big transformations. Hawthorne is home to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, The Boring Company, Tesla Design (some of the most transformative companies of our time) and will soon welcome Ring, Amazon’s $1Billion acquisition. Hawthorne will become a unique innovation center. It will create many jobs and will enjoy continuous coverage because of Tesla product launches. Inglewood will be home to the new NFL Stadium (for Rams and Chargers) and to the new Clippers arena. Inglewood will become a global entertainment center and will provide entertainment options to the newcomers of Hawthorne’s innovation transformation. Inglewood will enjoy continuous coverage because of many sporting events slotted through the 2028 Olympics. We will discuss the Hawthorne-Inglewood cross-interaction in more detail.

39. Since the Hawthorne-Inglewood cross-interaction involves innovation/highly paying jobs, entertainment/leisure options and also financially very strong stakeholders, it will become a big population magnet. It will lead to more residential and commercial developments and could turn Inglewood into a 3rd downtown serving the south/southwest of LA (including Manhattan Beach and Hermosa Beach). Because of scheduled, periodic events including sporting events (Super Bowl, NCAA Championship, and others that Kroenke will attract), innovation events (Tesla launches, Hyperloop competitions, etc), it will have a continuous forcing function, which will amplify the Hawthorne-Inglewood cross-interaction. This will both amplify Hawthorne as an innovation hub and Inglewood as an entertainment hub. It will create a tri-pole structure in LA, with Inglewood, DTLA and the Westside at each pole. Next we will discuss the potential 2026 FIFA WC’s impact on LA.

40. If FIFA awards the 2026 WC to the United bid (still uncertain as Morocco’s bid is gathering strength), it would be a transformative event for US Soccer. The next generation of the USMNT will be by far the best in its history. In 2026 young talents Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Timothy Weah will be at their peak and for the first time the USMNT will have a competitive WC team. This could captivate the nation and amplify this event. Los Angeles as an entertainment and sports city would be one hub of the WC. By 2026 LA’s transformation will have gathered visible steam. Visitors and global audiences would experience LA’s transformation and the news of it would spread globally. The WC could be a prelude to the 2028 Olympics, another news spreading event. Both of these global sports events could also have interesting cross-interactions with Snap and its technology platform. To be discussed next.

41. Since Snap focuses on geo-tagged, video content and AR, it could have interesting cross-interactions with the slew of upcoming sports events in LA. Sports content is an interesting vertical for Snap. By the time the 2028 Olympics and 2026 WC arrive, Snap will probably have a broad, camera ecosystem that individuals and other entities can use to broadcast video content. Most likely this content will be augmented in some way. And if by then SnapMaps becomes more mainstream, this content will be geo-tagged, which will let people from all over the world consume/experience these events and the entire environment in LA. Having richer content for these sports events will put more attention on LA and also create more engagement for Snap. So this cross-interaction will amplify Snap, the sports events and LA’s transformation.

42. Bird, Headspace, ServiceTitan could also develop interesting interactions with existing entities. There are several other interactions that we will not discuss in detail. But all of them will have an impact on LA’s Transformation. As with any natural, dynamic system most entities interact with each other and contribute to the system’s dynamics. Even Zlatan will have his impact on LA’s Transformation lol. But ultimately by 2028 the number of positive feedback loops could be so large that the system could tip. Next we will summarize the most important conclusions of this chain and discuss the system’s potential state by 2028.

43. By 2028 LA will have a tri-pole structure, with poles around Inglewood/Hawthorne, Santa Monica/Westside and Downtown LA. Each pole will have an innovation hub and some entertainment options. Hopefully the poles will be connected by a new public transport mode. Along the coast will be the Westside Transformation Axis stretching along Westwood, Santa Monica, West LA, Culver City, Venice, Playa Visa, Westchester, Inglewood, Hawthorne and maybe beyond. There will be many cross-interactions along the Westside Transformation Axis, which will amplify the axis. Many LA institutions will also feel the impact of the transformation. To be continued.

44. By 2028 LA will have a more complete public transportation system and will be more connected. Air quality will also improve significantly because of electric car adoption. There will be a talent influx into the three innovation hubs in LA. This will grow the city’s population and could cause additional traffic issues if there is no new mode of transportation. Hopefully The Boring Company can help alleviate these issues. Impacted by the local tech scene, UCLA and USC will be ranked higher than they are today. This will put even more attention on LA as an innovation center and attract more talent. By 2028 Los Angeles will also have a stronger sociological link to Silicon Valley, maybe even a stronger transport link if there is a new, high-speed mode of transport. Also by 2029 the California High Speed Rail will connect SF to LA and provide additional transportation options across the state. To be continued.

45. By 2028 a new batch of innovative companies will come out of the shadows of SpaceX, Snap and Hyperloop One. LA’s tech scene will be more established and will attract more innovators, thereby adding to the list of Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Evan Spiegel and Richard Branson. By then many will consider LA the #2 innovation hub in the world (after Silicon Valley). In the next 10 years the system will have a continuous forcing function with periodic events around infrastructure projects, sports entertainment and tech innovation. These events and the continuous media coverage will attract even more people from around the world. LA’s talent pool, workforce and population will grow. Next we will discuss if LA can overcome the frictions of increasing rents and additional traffic.

46. The two most important frictions that can dampen the system’s expansion are rising rents and additional traffic. Both of these factors are serious challenges and are related to transportation. Traffic is directly related to transportation and is affected by the efficiency and bandwidth of the transportation mode. Rising rents are indirectly related to transportation via population distribution. Transportation itself is entering a phase of disruption, which could have interesting implications. In the distant future a more efficient, high speed and high bandwidth transportation mode could allow for a more uniform population distribution thereby improving traffic and also reducing concentrated population pockets with high rents. But the question is if that mode will arrive in time to absorb LA’s Transformation. A new transportation mode could under certain circumstances slow down rising rents and increasing traffic in LA, but of course the two will still remain limiting factors. To be continued.

47. A lot will depend on the upcoming transportation disruption and the next mode of transportation. A new mode could alter community structures and absorb the growth from LA’s Transformation. Los Angeles has a significant number of underdeveloped communities in the southwest, south and east. If a better transportation mode arrives, the development could spread to these communities and alleviate rising rents in the west. So the big question is when will a new, improved mode of transportation arrive. Until 2028 Los Angeles can handle the upcoming transformation but beyond that, if there are no new transportation modes, the frictions of traffic and rising rents could become too large and could dampen LA’s Transformation. If a new mode of transportation arrives before that, it could amplify LA’s Transformation and raise it to the next level.

48. Until 2028 the system will have a periodic forcing function of business, sports entertainment and infrastructure events. Below is a timeline of the most important infrastructure and sports events. Business events have no set timeline and we can discuss them next.

2019 Crenshaw-LAX Line Opens

2019 LAX New International Concourse Opens

2020 Inglewood Stadium Opens

2020 6th Street Viaduct Opens

2021 Lucas Museum Opens

2022 Super Bowl in Inglewood

2022 Downtown Regional Connector Opens

2023 LAX People Mover Opens

2023 NCAA Final in Inglewood

2024 Clippers Arena in Inglewood Opens (pending)

2026 Westwood Purple Line Opens

2026 Crenshaw Line Extension to West Hollywood

2026 FIFA World Cup in Los Angeles (pending)

2028 Sepulveda Pass Connects to Purple Line

2028 Green Line Extension to Torrance

2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles

2029 California High Speed Rail Opens

20XX New modes of transportation introduced

49. In addition to infrastructure and sports related forcing functions, a continuous, business forcing-function will drive forward LA’s Transformation. By 2028 LA’s tech and startup ecosystem will experience its “real” birth. Large business events including IPOs, large acquisitions, large VC rounds will have a big impact on this process. SpaceX’s IPO will be a significant event which will unlock new potential and amplify the transformation. It could initiate a new batch of tech startups that will create innovative products. Also large tech players creating a presence in LA will be important, as is the case with Apple and Amazon leasing buildings in Culver City. Future events related to Snap, SpaceX, The Boring Company, Virgin Hyperloop One, Headspace, Bird, ServiceTitan and many others will attract attention and keep the transformation going. By 2028 LA’s tech and startup ecosystem will be more connected to the city. By 2028 many components of “LA’s broader system” will interact with each other and create several positive feedback loops thereby amplifying LA’s Transformation. By 2028 the system’s dynamics will tip and the system will enter an accelerated growth phase.

50. Thanks for tuning in! This concludes the chain on LA’s upcoming Transformation, one of the most exciting techo-socio-economic phenomena of the coming decade. In the next ten years the world will experience the birth of a second innovation hub to support, amplify and complement Silicon Valley. This was a simplified, systemic analysis of several macro and micro phenomena and their interactions within LA’s Transformation. The system is complex and when it comes to future outcomes of complex systems, the devil is always in the details. Luckily the details seem to be well aligned for Los Angeles and this transformation could be huge! It would take too long to discuss all the details here, but I am happy to elaborate in private. The multi-dimensionally of LA’s Transformation is probably one reason why many people will underestimate it. LA’s Transformation will involve tech/innovation, transportation revolution, public infrastructure, real estate development and sports entertainment. LA’s upcoming Transformation will be a phenomenon to look forward to. It will be an interesting phenomenon to analyze. Below is also a map-rendering showing some of the important aspects discussed in this chain. Thanks for reading the chain!

Disclaimer:

Since I am a dyslexic, I am prone to spelling and grammar mistakes. Hopefully it does not distract from the substance of the article.

Thank you for reading this article :)