The Birth of US Soccer

The idea for this article emerged gradually.

For couple of years I had been following Christian Pulisic’s development at Borussia Dortmund and the impact he was having on the influx of other young Americans into the Bundesliga.

I was also following North America’s bid to host the 2026 FIFA WC.

Then there was the emerging generation of talented US players coming through the youth ranks. There was so much talent in the youth ranks, that this seemed to be the Golden Generation of US Soccer.

Lastly, there was the steady financial growth and expansion of the MLS as a talent pipeline.

Over time, as many of these developments progressed, it became clear that the system was developing several strong, positive-feedback-loops and several forcing functions, most importantly because of economic and sociological drivers.

This meant that the outcome would be something transformative!

So in March 2019, I began publishing a systemic analysis of these phenomena as a chain on LinkedIn.

Below is a 16 pieced chain published on LinkedIn starting March 2019.

1. In the next 10 years US Soccer will undergo a huge transformation, big enough that one could call it The Birth of US Soccer (BUSS). There are many simultaneous phenomena that will contribute to this outcome. Some operate at the macro-level and some at the micro-level. Most of them are related to sociology and economics, but some also involve technological phenomena. We will start by analyzing the tech, macro phenomena first. One macro phenomenon that will contribute to BUSS is something we can call cultural hyper-connectivity. With the emergence of global content channels Facebook, Instagram, SnapChat, Twitter and YouTube, cultural and sociological phenomena spread much faster and much easier now. Hence the overall cultural Zeitgeist is becoming globalized. Ten years ago this wasn’t possible! Soccer is one of the biggest cultural phenomena in the world. For example the most followed Instagram account is that of Cristiano Ronaldo. And then there are Neymar and Messi at # 9 and 10 in terms of IG followers. These cultural hyper-connectivity channels expose Americans to more soccer. And this is just the beginning of these global content channels and their effects, since the generation born with these channels has not even matured yet.

2. Another macro phenomenon, the rollout of 5G connectivity, will also have an effect on BUSS. Not only will the increased speed/bandwidth amplify cultural hyper-connectivity and homogenize global culture more, but it will also reduce frictions in video content streaming. This will make it easier for Americans to consume European soccer content, which will also gradually increase US exposure to soccer. In general mobile video content will be an area highly impacted by 5G. The current business models in sports content are still confined to the traditional studio structures (unlike other content that has been transformed by Netflix, Amazon, etc.). It is interesting to consider at what level of technological innovation these traditional business models will change to provide a more catered experience for the consumer. It is probably just a question of time and tech innovation for this to happen. We will return to discussing other macro-phenomena that will contribute to BUSS. But to capture some important system dynamics it would be advantageous at this point to go more micro and hone in on some economic developments in the German Bundesliga, and discuss how the Bundesliga will impact US Soccer.

3. The German Bundesliga currently has a high concentration of young, talented, US players. There are Tyler Adams (RB Leipzig), Weston McKennie and Haji Wright (Schalke), Christian Pulisic (Dortmund, moving to Chelsea in July), Josh Sargent (Bremen) and several others. And there are more coming through the youth ranks, including Giovanni Reyna (Dortmund), Chris Richards (Bayern). And there are some old-timer Americans still playing in the Bundesliga. This is an unprecedented concentration of talented, young, US players for any European league. Realizing this opportunity, the Bundesliga wants to capitalize on it, and is trying to capture the large US consumer market. So there is significant marketing effort by the league itself towards the US consumer. The league caters its media channels and marketing stories to involve these US players. It is putting significant economic effort to capture the large, untapped, US market. Not only the league, but also individual teams with US players are making an effort to capture the US consumer. These teams are spending more marketing money, and time in the US during their summer breaks. When it comes to fan loyalty, being first to market can be important. All this slowly exposes Americans to more soccer.

4. As the Bundesliga is trying to expand its market to US consumers, more Bundesliga teams will want to participate in this expansion by recruiting young US players into their ranks. This will increase the concentration of US players in the league even more. It will make the Bundesliga the platform of choice for young US players for making the jump to Europe, since the current young players will make the transition for newcomers easier. Also many Bundesliga teams are creating partnerships with MLS academies to aid this transition. Bayern has a partnership with Dallas and there are several other partnerships. Then there is the Red Bull connection between NY and Leipzig. Hence this collaboration between the Bundesliga and the MLS has a strong, self-reenforcing nature, because it is advantageous to both sides and has strong network effects. The Bundesliga will be an important contributor to BUSS. In few years even more US players will play in the Bundesliga and hence this will expose more Americans to European soccer and the World to US players. Next we want to discuss Christian Pulisic’s move to the Premier League and what effect that could have on US Soccer.

5. The Premier League is financially the strongest soccer league in the world and has significant marketing power. At this point it is difficult to gauge how well Pulisic will adjust to the move. He will be under a lot of pressure and limelight, and will face significant competition. As a young player it will be challenging in that environment. If Pulisic can establish himself as a significant contributor at Chelsea, it will open up an opportunity for Chelsea to market to the US consumer. Lots of stories will be written about Pulisic, about his struggles and successes. There will be lots of media coverage. Chelsea will try to capitalize by putting its economic power behind an expansion to the US market. Chelsea’s economic resources can have significant reach in that regard. This will expose Americans to more soccer as many will follow Pulisic’s development at Chelsea and in the Premier League. If this marketing experiment at Chelsea is successful in capturing US attention, it is possible that in the future another Premier League club will attempt to imitate it, by acquiring a standout US player. Maybe Tim Weah, if he is willing to leave Paris, or someone from the Bundesliga. Having a second top US player in the Premier League would be significant.

6. If a second, standout US player moved to the Premier League, and established himself at one of the London or Manchester teams, it would be an important development for US soccer. This would create much better stories that could incorporate Pulisic and this second player. It would allow for more interesting friendship and rivalry stories. It would also trigger a second, big Premier League team to enter the race for the US consumer and probably ignite the efforts of the entire league. It would also make it easier for other US players to make the jump from the Bundesliga to the Premier League. There are already few young US players under contract in the Premier League (mostly defenders like Carter-Vickers, Palmer-Brown) but non of them have established themselves and tend to play for other teams on loan. A second, standout, offensive player (maybe Weah or Reyna) would complement Pulisic’s story and make a difference for US Soccer. This would help the Premier League to push for US consumers, and will expose Americans to more soccer and push forward BUSS. Yet all this depends on how well Pulisic will do at Chelsea, which is still uncertain, so we will wait and see. Next we want to go more macro and discuss developments at the USMNT level.

7. The next generation of US Soccer will be the “Golden Generation”. The upcoming talent pipeline is pretty long, with Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Josh Sargent, Tim Weah, Gio Reyna, Alex Mendez, Uly Llanez, Chris Richards, Konrad De La Fuente and many others. For the US this is an unprecedented talent pipeline and will have interesting implications. The timing of the next two World Cups in 2022 and 2026 will interact with the development of the “Golden Generation”. At WC2022 many of these youngsters, for the first time, can play on a large international stage and hopefully play themselves into the hearts of the US public. Then at WC2026 when many of these players have reached their peak performance, they will play in front of the home audience in the US. This timing sets up a great opportunity for stories. Starting 2022 many stories will be written about the USMNT as this young group is maturing and developing at European clubs. Outlets like ESPN could create entire “reality shows” on the emergence of this group, as it is preparing for the home World Cup. Nike and Adidas will create their own stories in preparation for an exciting WC2026. So there is a huge marketing machine that will kick in after 2022. We will discuss this next.

8. The soccer marketing machine has already picked up, with increasing coverage on emerging players including Pulisic and McKennie. Even the 16 year old Gio Reyna has a World Cup focused ad with Adidas. But this is just the beginning of the story line. The upcoming “Golden Generation” has several marketable personalities and once many of them establish themselves in European soccer, the marketing efforts will only increase. After the 2022 World Cup, as the general public gets introduced to these players, the marketing machine will accelerate even more. This “Golden Generation” has a pretty diverse ethnographic makeup and therefore allows for a wide range of role model types. This broad ethnographic makeup is very important for inspiring the future generations of US soccer players. Inspiring the future generations will be one of the most important contributions of the “Golden Generation” towards BUSS. Nike, Adidas, ESPN, Red Bull will be some of the brands that will push the marketing machine towards WC2026. They will create personality types and story lines. They will cover these players’ journeys in Europe with marketing campaigns and general news coverage. This will add to the broader marketing efforts by the Bundesliga and the Premier League.

9. The timing of a US Soccer “Golden Generation” and WC2026 in the US will be an enticing marketing opportunity for other global brands as well. Many global brands will try to participate in ad campaigns around the “Golden Generation” to capture the US consumer. The storyline is emotionally enticing because the US had failed to qualify for the last WC and therefore it is a “comeback story” that people love. So the marketing potential for the “Golden Generation” is huge and many brands will jump on it. With such financial force behind the story, it will reach a broad American audience and generate interest in soccer. So when WC2026 arrives, Americans will be fairly familiar with the personalities in that group. It is difficult to say how well the US will do at WC2026, considering many strong participants including France (Dembele and Mbappe) and England (Sancho and Hudson-Odoi). But it is not only how far the US will get, that will impact the future US Soccer generations, but what kind of a storyline the team will have during WC2026. If this storyline is emotionally engaging, given the financial power behind it, it could become a US Soccer landmark moment that will engrain itself into history and inspire the future US Soccer generations.

10. FIFA World Cup 2026 will be a huge event! For the first time the WC will have 48 participants and 80 total matches. For the first time there will be three nations hosting the WC (Canada, Mexico, US), so the tournament will span an entire continent. Considering that by 2026 there will be additional web connectivity (5G) and content technology evolution (AR/VR), WC2026 will be an unprecedented global event. Also considering that the event will be in North America, WC2026 will have great infrastructure and technology support. It will also have significant financial resources behind it and will be a huge media event. Also WC2026 will have many exceptional players at display as many teams have very strong generations coming up in that timeframe (including France, England, Brazil). So the stage will be set for a big event and for the US “Golden Generation” to capture the global audiences and play itself into US soccer history. The USMNT will feel pressure in front of the home audience. So a lot will depend on how the storyline will turn out at the tournament and how far the US will get. But the preconditions are set for a landmark, inspirational event in US Soccer and the USMNT will try to capitalize on it. Next we will discuss the evolution of the MLS.

11. The MLS has come a long way since its founding with 10 teams in 1996. Today the league has 24 teams and is profitable. It is expanding rapidly, with 3 more confirmed teams by 2021. As the league’s profitability increases, the players’ average salary will increase and become more competitive with other soccer leagues around the world. This will attract better players over time and make the league more attractive. The league’s structure is also developing many sustainable feedback loops that amplify the league. For example, now both New York and Los Angeles each have two teams, which creates potential for rivalries and better stories. The MLS is gradually becoming more popular for European stars to play their twilight years. Many of these players, who have achieved great success in Europe, enjoy spending some time in the US to experience the country’s economic vibrancy and lifestyle. Also global cities like New York, Los Angeles and Miami are attractive cities for European stars to experience. David Beckham was one of the first big stars to popularize that move and now there is Ibrahimovic in Los Angeles. All these players are putting more attention on the league and many of them, like Beckham, remain involved with the league.

12. Many European stars will remain involved in the MLS after playing in the league. This will strengthen the sociological link between the MLS and European soccer. For example David Beckham will be an owner in the Miami expansion team. Becoming an investor/owner in the MLS could be an enticing business opportunity for other European stars as well and will add sociological clout to the league. Once MLS player salaries increase sufficiently, the MLS could become an interesting option for top South American players, who either couldn’t make the jump to Europe or need a springboard. Red Bull with its global brand and team network of New York, Leipzig, Salzburg and RB Brasil will reenforce the league’s growth. NY Red Bulls could be an important link in this player channel. Also as mentioned before the Bundesliga-MLS cross interaction will strengthen the MLS and nurture US talent. We can’t expect the MLS to reach the level of European top leagues any times soon (or maybe ever), but the MLS is experiencing significant financial growth and many positive feedback loops are pushing forward its development. As the money starts flowing, the rest will follow. The growth of the MLS will increase soccer interest in the US and significantly contribute to BUSS.

13. As the money starts flowing, the rest will follow. One investor in Beckham’s Miami expansion team is Masayoshi Son from Softbank. Masa as a global investor tends to think big! Inter Miami plans to spend $1B on a future Miami Freedom Park, a large stadium complex with entertainment and recreational facilities. The Miami Freedom Park is an exciting project similar in nature to Stan Kroenke’s development in LA. The Park could become an attraction in Miami. In few years, with this facility, Beckham is planning to lure either Ronaldo or Messi to Miami. Not sure if the bid will be successful, but many stars realize that after retirement, one of their biggest assets is their brand and the social marketing channels they have accumulated. Although Messi and Ronaldo are already two of the most followed athletes on IG, expanding their brands to the US and penetrating the US consumer, could be an enticing project with long-term value. It is possible that one of them could choose to play at Inter Miami. Miami is a multicultural city and is close to both Europe and South America. It has a large South American population, so it is an ideal city for such bold thinking! This is an interesting MLS development that will expose Americans to soccer and push forward BUSS.

14. Let’s summarize the phenomena at the system level:

1. Increasing concentration of US players in the Bundesliga and Bundesliga’s marketing push towards the US consumer
2. Bundesliga-MLS collaboration provides a better channel for academy players to jump to Europe and provides resources for academies.
3. Significant growth and expansion of the MLS, which leads to more investment, higher salaries and attracts better players to the MLS and creates more soccer exposure for Americans
4. European stars remain involved with MLS, strengthening the social bond with European soccer.
5. Pulisic moving to the Premier League unlocks the largest European league’s marketing efforts towards the US consumer.
6. Emergence of the US Soccer “Golden Generation” and the marketing machine associated with that story line.
7. Cultural hyper-connectivity with global content channels like YouTube, FB, IG, Twitter, Snap amplifying the spread of global cultural phenomena
8. Rollout of 5G networks removes friction from video content consumption and helps soccer consumption and marketing efforts.
9. 2026 FIFA WC in North America being the biggest WC in history with 48 teams and the timing of the “Golden Generation” playing in front of the home audience and creating role models.

15. Many of these nine phenomena have inherent positive feedback loops (including network effects). These over time will accelerate the growth pace of these nine phenomena. Also many phenomena have cross-interactions. Two of the most dominant cross-interactions are the interaction between the Bundesliga and the MLS and the interaction between the next two World Cups and the Golden Generation. There are also less dominant cross-interactions, for example the Red Bull connection between Leipzig and New York, and the connection between Manchester City and NYCFC. As the system continues evolving and growing, it will generate more cross-interactions between these nine phenomena, hence the system will become more coupled and the transformation will become stronger. The true impact of the transformation will be felt few years after the 2026 WC, so sometime around 2030. As mentioned before, creating role models for the future US Soccer generations will be one of the most important outcomes of this transformation. Role models are a very important contributor to the propagation of all social phenomena, as human behavior is strongly influenced by imitation. Another important contributor to social phenomena is the incentive direction of money, which is also strongly in play with BUSS.

16. Thanks for tuning in! This concludes the chain on The Birth of US Soccer. Over the next ten years a socio-cultural, sports and entertainment transformation will introduce Soccer into US culture. This will have cascading effects and over time will make soccer a much bigger commercial and entertainment phenomenon in the US, so that one day the US can truly compete with the world’s big soccer nations. When it comes to predicting the future it is both about the big picture and also about many small details. There are many more system details that we have not discussed. All these details affect the transformation and most of them are well aligned. Since the system is highly sociological, it would take too long to describe these details. Sociology is all about small nuances, hence it takes much more effort to describe it with words. These types of systems are much better captured with visual thinking. I am always happy to elaborate on these details in the future. It will be an interesting transformation to observe and an interesting system to analyze.

Looking forward to seeing the US Golden Generation perform at the 2026 World Cup in front of the home fans and excited about the consequences. Thanks for reading this chain. Hope you enjoyed it!

Disclaimer:

Since I am a dyslexic, I am prone to spelling and grammar mistakes. Hopefully it does not distract from the substance of the article.

Thank you for reading this article :)